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Catalonia: Spain in crisis as Catalonia declares independence: What happens next?

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Direct rule

* Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy sacked Catalonia’s government including regional president Carles Puigdemont and his deputy Oriol Junqueras and assumed direct control over the region after the Catalan parliament declared independence from Spain on Friday.

* Central government ministries will assume directly the powers of the Catalan administration until a regional election takes place on December 21.

Elections

* It is not clear whether a snap regional election will resolve the crisis.

* An opinion poll published by the El Periodico newspaper on Sunday showed a snap election would probably have results similar to the last ballot in 2015, when a coalition of pro-independence parties formed a minority government.

* Other opinion polls have shown Catalonia is almost evenly split between pro- and anti-independence supporters.

Civil disobedience

* Catalonia’s main secessionist groups have called for widespread civil disobedience.

* They also instructed civil servants not to obey orders from Madrid and respond with peaceful resistance. It is unclear whether such calls will be followed or not.

Use of force

* Spain’s government said it was not planning to make any arrests, but it is unclear how it will proceed if the current regional administration staff refuse to leave their offices.

* A growing number of analysts fear this could lead to a physical confrontation if national police, who used heavy-handed tactics to thwart an October 1 vote on independence, seek to intervene.

Police

* One of the main problems over the implementation of direct rule will relate to Catalonia’s own police forces, the Mossos d’Esquadra.

* Rajoy said the Mossos chief would be fired.

* But a group of Mossos favoring independence has already said they would not follow instructions from the central government and would not use force to remove ministers and lawmakers from power.

* Several officers told Reuters they believed the 17,000-strong force was split between those who want independence and those who oppose it.

* The Mossos, whose chief is under investigation on suspicion of sedition, will have to act on direct orders from their new bosses. If deemed necessary, Mossos officers may be replaced by national police.

Finances

* The Economy Ministry has already increased its control over regional finances, to block the use of state funds to organize the secession bid, and started paying directly for essential services.

* Under the new proposal, Madrid will take full financial control.

* Many companies have however said on condition of anonymity that they feared a new Catalan treasury could start levying taxes, and that they would seek to move their tax base outside Catalonia.

* It is also possible that some pro-independence Catalans will stop paying their taxes to the Spanish treasury.

Public media

* The Spanish government had initially said it would control widely watched Catalan public television TV3, but it eventually dropped that plan.

* The media is likely to play an important role in the run-up to the new election in Catalonia.

Updated: October 28, 2017 — 9:44 am

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