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Of the six polls available, four gave BJP the lead while two put Congress ahead. One of the four polls that saw the saffron party as likely to be the largest in the assembly, the Times Now-Today’s Chanakya poll, had a median forecast of 120 seats for BJP out of the 222 for which counting will be held on Tuesday. Another, done by CVoter for ABP News, also predicted BJP just squeezing through to a majority with 112 seats (see graph). On the other side, the India Today-Axis My India poll had a median forecast of 112 for Congress, just enough to cross the halfway mark in the truncated house.
The remaining three indicated that no party would get a majority on its own, a scenario that would leave JD(S) holding all the aces.
Of these three, the ones done by CNX for NewsX and by Jan ki Baat for Republic TV gave BJP a clear edge over Congress while the one done by VMR for Times Now saw it as a really tight race in which Congress would finish just a few seats ahead.
With the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls next year having begun in a sense, the Karnataka results assume an importance that they would normally not have had.
The fact that the southern state also is only one of two major states in which Congress is in power adds to the stakes for that party.
For BJP, it is the only southern state in which it is a contender for power and losing it twice in succession would spell bad news for its expansion plans in the region.